“The best players in the CPL for the money, for the quality, and for all those variables considered, have come out of U Sports.” Carmine Isacco, Former York9 Assistant Coach (source: The Northern Tribune).
About the series
In Parts 2 and 3 we looked at the success (minutes played) of draftees based on draft order (nope) and team (HFX farts in Forge’s general direction). In this story we’ll see which playing positions have been drafted the most, and whether certain positions’ draftees go on to play a lot of CPL minutes. I won’t spoil any surprises yet, but let’s just say it rhymes with schmoalkeepers.
The draft, like the league itself, is young. But even with such a small sample size, some trends are evident-ish. And numbers are fun. The five parts are:
- What is the CPL-U Sports Draft?
- Does draft position matter?
- Which clubs succeed at the draft (and which one fails)?
- Which player positions get drafted (and which ones succeed)? *YOU ARE HERE*
- How can the draft be improved? 7 ideas from people smarter than me
Which player positions get drafted?
Midfielders tend to get drafted the most, followed by forwards, defenders, and just two goalkeepers. This is based on the 2018 and 2019 drafts.
I excluded the 2021 draft since we don’t yet know which of them will succeed in playing minutes. But if you’re curious, its 16 draftees were more defender-heavy than the previous two drafts (9 D; 4 M; 2 F; 1 GK).
Which player positions succeed in getting minutes?
The most honest answer is that it’s too early to tell. Only two drafts are available for this analysis, and the latter one only semi-counts because The Island Games was a mini-season in which draftees barely played at all. Give it another couple of years, and trends might become apparent. That’s boring, but it’s the truth.
But let’s say this is just a fun blog article, where we can speculate anyways.
Are U Sports goalkeepers under-rated?
Only two goalkeepers were drafted in 2018 or 2019, but those two did really well. Both Connor James (FC Edmonton) and Christian Oxner (HFX Wanderers) quickly became, and remain, their clubs’ first-string goalkeepers.
Are U Sports goalkeepers a market inefficiency, providing greater quality than outfield U Sports players? Maybe. Neither James nor Oxner were drafted with an especially high draft pick – in fact Oxner was selected in the third round, which doesn’t even exist anymore. So even these two very good goalkeeper draftees were likely under-rated. All other draft-eligible goalkeepers seem to have been rated so low they weren’t even drafted.
We’ll have one more datum point this year, because Valour selected goalkeeper Yuba-Rayane Yesli third overall in 2021. I’ll be curious to see how he does (there is competition for goalkeeper contracts at Valour’s training camp), and whether more clubs draft goalkeepers next year.
Are U Sports midfielders over-rated?
Most midfield draftees (9 out of 14) didn’t play any CPL minutes in their post-draft season. That’s worse than any other position. In fact, those 14 drafted midfielders have played about the same total minutes as the 2 drafted goalkeepers. It gets even worse when the “midfielder” with the most minutes, Joel Waterman, was drafted as a midfielder but often played as a central defender for Cavalry. So he only semi-counts as a midfielder.
Are U Sports midfielders kinda bad?
If you say yes to that, then former York University midfielder and current CanMNT player Mark-Anthony Kaye would like to have a word.
Another argument for U Sports having quality midfielders is that one of those zero-minute midfielders was Abou Sissoko, who is very good. Forge drafted Sissoko, chose not to offer him a contract, and he went on to play for HFX Wanderers the year after and has already moved up from CPL (more on Sissoko in Part 3 of this blog series). So there are quality midfielders available in the draft.
Based on how few midfielders were selected in the 2021 draft, maybe clubs have re-calibrated their valuation of U Sports midfielders. More likely it’s just the luck of small sample sizes – who knows.
How does this compare to MLS or NWSL?
I dunno. I found several analyses of the MLS Superdraft, and one of the NWSL draft, but none that evaluated playing position. Which surprised me, and makes this a much shorter article than I anticipated. Which positions get drafted the most, and which ones go on to succeed in MLS and NWSL … it’s a shrug emoji for now. Please let me know if you’re aware of an analysis of player position for the draft of any pro soccer league. There must be analyses other than this one out there … right?
Conclusions
- Clubs have drafted midfielders a lot, and goalkeepers very little.
- Drafted midfielders have tended not to do very well, while goalkeepers have done amazing.
- But it’s a small sample size, so this could all just be random luck.
- Yuba-Rayane Yesli is tall.
Next in the series
The draft is great, but how could it be improved? I’ve compiled seven ideas from people smarter than me and broken down their pros, cons, and verdicts. Should the “snake format” change to a traditional “worst-to-first”? Should the draft be restricted to Canadian students? How could the draft broadcast be improved? Should we get rid of the draft altogether? All your hot takes in one place – get ready for it!
- What is the CPL-U Sports Draft?
- Does draft position matter?
- Which clubs succeed at the draft (and which one fails)?
- Which player positions get drafted (and which ones succeed)? *YOU ARE HERE*
- How can the draft be improved? 7 ideas from people smarter than me
Let me know your thoughts on the article @JayFitzSoccer.
Jay enjoys coaching and playing soccer recreationally. He’s dabbling in soccer analytics about the Canadian Premier League and League1 Ontario. He lives in Peterborough, Ontario with his family.
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